This analysis examines whether the emerging global order resembles a New Cold War and assesses the potential economic consequences for the United Kingdom by 2035. It models three plausible scenarios — hard bipolar fragmentation, managed strategic rivalry, and multipolar fragmentation — and quantifies possible UK GDP impacts ranging from modest (−1%) to severe (−8%) relative to baseline. The paper also evaluates financial-sector exposure risks, particularly the vulnerability of London’s global market infrastructure to regulatory fragmentation, sanctions spill overs, and volatility shocks. It concludes with strategic recommendations to enhance UK resilience in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical environment.
